Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x512a…d537 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$600 (+30%) realized +$600 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$658
other 15% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +15.5% +4.5% 60% 60% +17.6%
≤30d 20 +15.5% +4.5% 60% 60% +17.6%
≤90d 20 +15.5% +4.5% 60% 60% +17.6%
all 20 +15.5% +4.5% 60% 60% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 60% +17.6%
10% -5.5% 60% +6.3%
15% -14.6% 55% -3.9%
20% -23.0% 50% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$67 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $152 +$41 +27%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $61 +$49 +80%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $204 +$180 +88%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $102 +$257 +251%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $87 +$77 +89%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$11 -21%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $101 +$40 +40%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $102 +$93 +91%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $51 +$64 +126%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $102 +$63 +61%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $152 +$107 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 79¢ $193 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $152 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 42¢ $110 5h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 22¢ $61 6h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 58¢ $384 8h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 25¢ $102 9h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 37¢ $102 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $51 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $28 10h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $359 10h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 26¢ $102 11h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 54¢ $164 11h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 28¢ $87 12h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Shelton 64¢ $202 13h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 29¢ $41 20h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 35¢ $51 22h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 27¢ $51 22h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 81¢ $142 26h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 57¢ $101 28h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 65¢ $101 28h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 90¢ $194 29h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 46¢ $102 30h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 51¢ $101 31h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 99¢ $115 32h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $51 33h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 26¢ $51 33h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 23¢ $51 34h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 42¢ $165 36h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 25¢ $102 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $152 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records