Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x512a…2ca5
crypto · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$131 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$118 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 3 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$20 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$88
other 24% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $35 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $41 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -41.6% -47.1% 32% 28% -38.0%
≤30d 25 -41.6% -47.1% 32% 28% -38.0%
≤90d 25 -41.6% -47.1% 32% 28% -38.0%
all 25 -41.6% -47.1% 32% 28% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.1% 28% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -52.2% 28% -43.9%
15% -56.8% 20% -49.4%
20% -61.0% 20% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 69 history records