Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x512b…d165 other 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%35W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% $0
other 24% −$5
politics 21% −$10
crypto 9% −$2
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 36 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 200 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses35 / 165
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage174d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $134 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 04 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 02 $41 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 30 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $121 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $132 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $39 $0 -1%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 23 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 8d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 15d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $40 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 40d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 40d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 80d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 81d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $47 81d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 81d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 81d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $47 81d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $35 81d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $38 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $39 82d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $46 82d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $46 82d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $36 82d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $37 82d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 82d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 82d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 82d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 83d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? SELL No 98¢ $38 83d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 98¢ $38 83d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.59 · official $28.59 (match) · 712 history records