Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5130…818b weather 203 markets active 2d ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$250 (-3%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate50%102W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$163
crypto 12% −$58
sports 1% −$14
politics 1% +$6
world 0% −$16
other 0% −$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 60% -11.6%
≤30d 58 -28.2% -35.0% 24% 19% -53.5%
≤90d 203 -12.6% -21.0% 50% 18% -12.4%
all 203 -12.6% -21.0% 50% 18% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 18% -12.4%
10% -28.5% 12% -20.8%
15% -35.4% 6% -28.4%
20% -41.8% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses102 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 03 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$6 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $20 −$11 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? May 31 $20 −$14 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 31 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 76¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records