Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5130…5a76 sports 92 markets active 20h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$126
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$202
other 15% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 45% -3.9%
≤30d 86 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
all 86 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -9.7%
10% -27.2% 42% -18.4%
15% -34.2% 40% -26.2%
20% -40.7% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 92
History coverage13d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$24 +119%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$14 +69%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +140%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $153 +$188 +124%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$17 +57%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$24 +60%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $305 +$265 +87%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $132 +$145 +109%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $51 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 19h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 45¢ $20 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 20h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $10 20h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 20h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $20 20h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 20h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 24¢ $31 42h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $10 43h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 43h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 67¢ $10 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 43h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 43h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 43h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $102 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra BUY 12¢ $51 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $30 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $51 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY 22¢ $102 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY 22¢ $102 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records