Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x5131…e9ef sports 63 markets active 12h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$16
tech 29% +$13
sports 27% −$46
other 11% +$161
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 27% -3.3%
≤30d 23 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 30% -3.2%
≤90d 26 -7.0% -15.8% 62% 27% -7.7%
all 62 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 23% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -8.0%
10% -25.5% 18% -16.8%
15% -32.7% 15% -24.9%
20% -39.3% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage223d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$236 +231%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $101 +$39 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$28 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$58 +58%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $170 +$18 +10%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $98 +$8 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $207 −$5 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $2,205 −$16 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $239 −$4 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $1,952 +$13 +1%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jan 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jan 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 18 $5 −$1 -13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 08 $2 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 08 $3 −$2 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 2AM ET Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 08 $2 +$2 +96%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 08 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $2 $0 -25%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 03 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 01 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $7 $0 -3%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Dec 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $13 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $101 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $9 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 30¢ $102 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $140 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 59¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $160 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $139 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $47 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $81 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $69 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 93¢ $107 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $100 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $98 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $145 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 62¢ $101 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $112 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records