Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5134…1316 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-23%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$1
other 39% −$3
sports 21% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.3% -41.5% 46% 38% -37.0%
≤30d 13 -35.3% -41.5% 46% 38% -37.0%
≤90d 13 -35.3% -41.5% 46% 38% -37.0%
all 13 -35.3% -41.5% 46% 38% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.5% 38% -37.0%
10% ← realistic here -47.1% 31% -43.0%
15% -52.2% 15% -48.5%
20% -56.9% 15% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Over 42¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $1 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 11h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 37 history records