Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x5135…7217 sports 687 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,410 (+3%) realized +$3,390 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%354W / 319L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Fees−$1,469est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +26.2% +14.2% 58% 58% +10.7%
≤30d 408 +3.6% -6.3% 51% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 673 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 51% -8.5%
all 673 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 51% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 51% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -17.3%
15% -18.3% 38% -25.2%
20% -26.3% 33% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$120 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,875
Realized+$3,390
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses354 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,469
Open positions14
Markets (closed)673 / 687
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage ALKA 51¢ 56¢ $215 $233 +$18 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoffs Johnny Speeds 80¢ 86¢ $212 $227 +$15 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Just Players 74¢ 78¢ $215 $224 +$9 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group D Inner Circle Academy 65¢ 66¢ $215 $220 +$5 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 56¢ 56¢ $215 $211 −$4 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs NEW VISION 72¢ 78¢ $157 $170 +$13 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group D WBT 37¢ 36¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Entropy 47¢ 38¢ $114 $94 −$20 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 51¢ 55¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Game Hunters 58¢ 58¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs UNO MILLE 40¢ 46¢ $57 $65 +$7 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs Fluxo 67¢ 66¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Playoffs Esport BERG 20¢ 16¢ $59 $49 −$9 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Julie&cie 22¢ 22¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage BESTIA Academy 40¢ 40¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 42¢ 46¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 27 $140 +$131 +94%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 27 $195 +$106 +54%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $195 +$269 +138%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $195 +$28 +15%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $30 +$130 +440%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $145 +$122 +84%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $195 +$76 +39%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $185 +$216 +116%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $195 +$211 +108%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $7 +$15 +223%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $169 +$99 +59%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $140 +$42 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $154 +$240 +156%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch Jun 25 $74 +$43 +58%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $93 +$203 +219%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $104 +$101 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $195 +$177 +91%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $135 +$240 +178%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $99 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $130 +$275 +211%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $73 +$156 +212%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $84 +$77 +91%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $135 −$56 -41%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $135 +$41 +31%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $98 +$111 +113%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $134 −$13 -10%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $135 +$102 +75%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $61 +$143 +234%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $135 +$125 +93%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $135 +$90 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $39 +$35 +89%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $66 +$78 +118%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $119 +$16 +13%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $125 +$172 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 39¢ $7 24m
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 83¢ $5 33m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY Entropy 45¢ $10 53m
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 43¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 40¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 40¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY WBT 37¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 41¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $88 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 79¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 75¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 55¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 69¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 42¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 40¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 40¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 67¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic BUY UNO MILLE 40¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 66¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Fluxo 64¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,874.57 · official $1,874.57 (match) · 3500 history records