Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x5135…df38 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$221 (+4%) realized +$366 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$95
other 37% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +24.2% +12.3% 58% 58% -4.5%
≤30d 45 +24.2% +12.3% 58% 58% -4.5%
≤90d 45 +24.2% +12.3% 58% 58% -4.5%
all 45 +24.2% +12.3% 58% 58% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 58% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 58% -13.7%
15% -8.2% 53% -22.0%
20% -17.2% 40% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$86 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$366
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $240 $230 −$10 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 34¢ $200 $135 −$65 (-32%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 46¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $70 $54 −$16 (-23%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 8¢ $42 $10 −$32 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 +$262 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $236 +$92 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$48 -47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$157 -77%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $224 −$207 -92%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$24 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$97 +95%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $434 +$174 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$47 +103%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$147 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $312 +$106 +34%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $111 −$109 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$48 +158%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $468 −$459 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$76 +107%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$30 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$80 +48%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $27 +$23 +84%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$58 +188%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 17m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 27m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 32m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 35m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $41 35m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 36m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $72 36m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 44m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $54 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $322 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $46 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $17 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $72 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $224 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $61 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 22h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $608 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 22h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $303 22h
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $131 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.41 · official $511.18 (match) · 95 history records