Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5136…0e4f other 912 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$14,821 (+8%) realized +$17,902 · open −$3,081
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%249W / 223L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$11,762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$1,107
other 23% −$5,022
sports 4% +$69
culture 4% −$140
tech 4% −$876
world 3% −$1,337
economics 1% −$246
crypto 0% +$62
weather 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +83.1% +65.7% 45% 25% -17.0%
≤30d 472 +44.1% +30.4% 53% 26% -13.2%
≤90d 472 +44.1% +30.4% 53% 26% -13.2%
all 472 +44.1% +30.4% 53% 26% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.4% 26% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here +17.9% 18% -21.5%
15% +6.5% 14% -29.1%
20% -3.9% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$57 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$11,762
Realized+$17,902
Unrealized−$3,081
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses249 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions396
Markets (closed)472 / 912
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$198
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 396 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 81¢ 98¢ $650 $787 +$137 (+21%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 68¢ $727 $566 −$161 (-22%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 30¢ 36¢ $255 $312 +$57 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 83¢ 97¢ $255 $299 +$44 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 81¢ 82¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 71¢ 74¢ $220 $231 +$10 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 63¢ 48¢ $195 $149 −$45 (-23%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 88¢ 76¢ $110 $94 −$16 (-14%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $74 $92 +$18 (+24%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 54¢ 70¢ $68 $88 +$20 (+30%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 98¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Esteban Ocon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 95¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Alexander Albon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 95¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 95¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Oliver Bearman get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 95¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 73¢ $62 $65 +$4 (+6%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Franco Colapinto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 96¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 70¢ $76 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 93¢ 82¢ $66 $59 −$7 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cadillac have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 98¢ 94¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 20 $2 +$58 +2300%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 20 $15 +$13 +92%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 20 $21 +$36 +168%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 20 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 20 $17 −$4 -21%
Will the People Power Party win 6 or more seats in South Korea’s June Jun 20 $17 −$4 -26%
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 20 $9 +$20 +233%
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 20 $0 +$64 +51825%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 20 $0 +$344 +98708%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 20 $1 +$13 +1964%
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $80 +$286 +356%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 20 $187 +$23 +12%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 20 $60 $0 +1%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $313 −$163 -52%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $180 −$30 -16%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $265 −$115 -43%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $143 +$43 +30%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $83 +$36 +44%
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $105 +$2 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43,529 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 Jun 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1086%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 17 $119 −$73 -62%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $3 +$24 +867%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $38 −$23 -59%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $16 +$4 +21%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $22 +$3 +12%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-2 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $298 −$148 -50%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $296 −$146 -49%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $299 −$149 -50%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $298 −$148 -50%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $280 −$130 -46%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $290 −$140 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 74¢ $168 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 74¢ $105 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 17¢ $24 1h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 25¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No $10 4h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 93¢ $140 4h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No $1 9h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No $0 9h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No $0 9h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 9h
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 9h
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 9h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 9h
Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 9h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 78¢ $3 13h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 69¢ $7 13h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 79¢ $8 13h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 81¢ $2 13h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 73¢ $4 13h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 94¢ $9 13h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 75¢ $6 13h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 73¢ $110 15h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 57¢ $86 15h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $132 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,761.57 · official $11,853.04 (match) · 3500 history records