Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
51 0x5137…2fc4 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+13%) realized +$136 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$66
other 29% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 64% +3.2%
≤30d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 64% +3.2%
≤90d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 64% +3.2%
all 11 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 64% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 64% +3.2%
10% -16.1% 55% -6.6%
15% -24.2% 36% -15.7%
20% -31.6% 36% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 +$24 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $207 +$44 +21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 +$18 +30%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $36 +$21 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $32 +$21 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $239 +$81 +34%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $243 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 24m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 25m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 26m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 90¢ $66 31m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $252 32m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $207 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $52 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $42 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $76 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $58 5h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $27 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $42 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $26 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $32 27h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 72¢ $239 29h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 85¢ $242 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 80¢ $243 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.88 · official $54.88 (match) · 25 history records