Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5138…4fe5 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,693 (-55%) realized −$20,840 · open −$1,853
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%36W / 40L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$518per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$984
7 days−$984
14 days−$984
30 days−$3,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$10,776
politics 26% −$9,873
crypto 14% −$24
other 6% −$1,366
finance 3% −$880
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -86.0% -87.3% 0% 0% -87.3%
≤30d 8 -53.4% -57.9% 25% 12% -71.5%
≤90d 50 -37.1% -43.1% 36% 24% -60.6%
all 76 -27.5% -34.4% 47% 32% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 32% -58.7%
10% -40.7% 18% -62.7%
15% -46.4% 12% -66.3%
20% -51.7% 9% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$592 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$20,840
Unrealized−$1,853
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage148d
Avg bet$518
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $1,001 $91 −$910 (-91%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ $1,000 $55 −$945 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,144 −$984 -86%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $567 −$567 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $1,162 +$5 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $41 +$65 +158%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $208 −$200 -96%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $898 −$78 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 10 $1,659 +$239 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $500 +$660 +132%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10? May 03 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $1,410 −$1,143 -81%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $1,765 −$1,765 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 01 $163 −$163 -100%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 01 $196 −$33 -17%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 29 $900 −$769 -86%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $1,275 −$1,177 -92%
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Apr 26 $300 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 26 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$9 +18%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 26 $159 −$109 -69%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 26 $446 −$250 -56%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $725 +$21 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $433 −$433 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 17 $386 −$386 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $400 −$14 -4%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $300 +$157 +52%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $274 −$274 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $563 +$11 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $1,257 −$168 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $500 +$232 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 12 $401 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 12 $230 +$171 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $225 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 12 $184 +$40 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 12 $86 +$98 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 12 $81 +$5 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1,659 −$1,601 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $665 −$642 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 02 $508 −$508 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 01 $662 +$234 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 31 $71 +$10 +15%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Mar 31 $5,410 −$4,940 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 31 $76 −$76 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $3,463 −$2,800 -81%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $160 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $160 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $3 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $26 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $0 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $13 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $1 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $14 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $15 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $11 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $1 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $583 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $294 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $0 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $168 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $3 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $11 12h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $1,001 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $166 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $588 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $575 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL Yes $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.62 · official $308.62 (match) · 258 history records