Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
51 0x5139…bd09 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$20 (-18%) realized −$3 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +105% what you keep after slip
Net edge+105%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$29
sports 27% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+113.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +135.5% +113.1% 67% 67% +141.0%
≤30d 3 +135.5% +113.1% 67% 67% +141.0%
≤90d 3 +135.5% +113.1% 67% 67% +141.0%
all 3 +135.5% +113.1% 67% 67% +141.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +113.1% 67% +141.0%
10% +92.7% 67% +117.9%
15% +74.1% 67% +96.9%
20% +57.0% 67% +77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +166% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +135% · $-wt +166% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$20 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.76 per $1 lost it wins $7.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 +$66 +216%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $13.39 (match) · 6 history records