Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
51 0x513a…1cfc other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,137 (+1%) realized +$1,135 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$740per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,336
politics 34% −$42
sports 10% −$165
economics 4% −$4
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 +2.8% -7.0% 6% 2% -7.6%
all 136 +2.6% -7.2% 18% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 12% -8.5%
10% -16.1% 11% -17.3%
15% -24.2% 10% -25.3%
20% -31.6% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,113) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$6 · ×12.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized+$1,135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage164d
Avg bet$740
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $653 $655 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,389 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,721 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,175 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,333 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,883 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $963 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,866 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $402 +$2 +1%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $525 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $2,107 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,177 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,398 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $889 +$1,279 +144%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $3,218 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $380 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $381 4h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 6h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $311 8h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $312 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $378 28h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $378 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $562 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $264 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $265 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $417 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $418 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $653 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $788 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $789 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $963 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $809 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,157 16d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $970 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.87 · official $654.87 (match) · 444 history records