Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x513e…e5c7 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-6%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$87
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$56
crypto 24% −$8
sports 8% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -21.1% -28.6% 44% 31% -16.1%
≤30d 78 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 33% -16.4%
≤90d 78 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 33% -16.4%
all 78 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 33% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 33% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 24% -24.4%
15% -40.7% 14% -31.7%
20% -46.5% 9% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -72%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$7 +30%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $63 −$33 -53%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$41 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$39 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$39 +84%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$7 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $12 6h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 6h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records