Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5142…e4ab other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-12%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$35
sports 30% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -38.8% -44.6% 25% 25% -23.2%
≤30d 28 -38.8% -44.6% 25% 25% -23.2%
≤90d 28 -38.8% -44.6% 25% 25% -23.2%
all 28 -38.8% -44.6% 25% 25% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 25% -23.2%
10% -49.9% 18% -30.6%
15% -54.8% 18% -37.3%
20% -59.2% 18% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $116 +$15 +12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 28h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 28h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 38h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $22 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $48 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $48 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $48 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.11 · official $94.11 (match) · 55 history records