Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5145…dd71 sports 171 markets active 6h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$834 (+1%) realized +$834 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%89W / 82L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day65.8pace
Fees−$676est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,060
7 days−$28
14 days+$512
30 days+$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$4,469
other 14% −$2,946
world 2% −$1,134
crypto 1% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -9.6%
≤30d 171 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 51% -8.8%
≤90d 171 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 51% -8.8%
all 171 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 51% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 51% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 51% -17.5%
15% -29.5% 40% -25.5%
20% -36.4% 32% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$323 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$834
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses89 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$676
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage11d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $869 +$231 +27%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $720 −$708 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $588 −$576 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,133 −$1,122 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $371 −$371 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,437 −$1,426 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $792 +$308 +39%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,548 +$952 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,503 +$707 +47%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $726 +$374 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $624 −$604 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $561 +$539 +96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $935 +$1,265 +135%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 +$290 +574%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $495 +$605 +122%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $499 −$499 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $638 −$627 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $824 −$814 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $726 +$374 +52%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $383 −$374 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $682 −$682 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,282 −$1,254 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $825 +$275 +33%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $781 +$319 +41%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $759 −$759 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,507 −$1,496 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $748 +$352 +47%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $270 +$330 +122%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1,001 +$1,409 +141%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $605 +$495 +82%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $693 +$407 +59%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $294 +$306 +104%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $770 +$330 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $715 −$704 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $161 −$161 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $715 +$385 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $450 +$650 +144%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $300 −$294 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 39¢ $39 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 5h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 7h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 841 history records