Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5146…ac5e other 629 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1102 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$211 (+17%) realized −$88 · open +$299
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%99W / 132L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1101.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$280
sports 14% +$21
tech 9% +$19
politics 9% +$28
world 5% +$33
weather 1% +$9
culture 1% −$3
economics 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +34.6% +21.8% 43% 37% +5.9%
≤30d 231 +34.6% +21.8% 43% 37% +5.9%
≤90d 231 +34.6% +21.8% 43% 37% +5.9%
all 231 +34.6% +21.8% 43% 37% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1101.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.8% 37% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here +10.1% 32% -4.2%
15% -0.5% 29% -13.5%
20% -10.3% 26% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,027
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$299
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses99 / 132
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions482
Markets (closed)231 / 629
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1101.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 482 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes $5 $81 +$76 (+1533%)
Will Pedri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+544%)
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+864%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ $1 $11 +$9 (+740%)
Will Colombia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $11 +$8 (+318%)
Will Bukayo Saka win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club ABB end in a draw? Yes 50¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+890%)
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of Elche CF? Yes 44¢ $1 $8 +$8 (+1367%)
Will Renaissance Zemamra win Morocco Botola Pro? Yes 48¢ $0 $8 +$7 (+1500%)
Will Josh Allen be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 26¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+2166%)
Will Algeria be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes $4 $7 +$2 (+58%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will United States win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $6 +$4 (+161%)
Will Ivanka Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 20¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+362%)
Will Bart Verbruggen win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+250%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Cincinnati Reds have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 26¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+297%)
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Yes 42¢ 74¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+77%)
Will the Boston Red Sox have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+156%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+144%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,181,000 and $1,190,000 on June 30? No 73¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+233%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +212%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 10? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +141%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Will "Government" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 15 $0 +$4 +3980%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 11? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +728%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colo Jun 15 $1 $0 +82%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 15 $0 $0 -64%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat? Jun 15 $1 $0 -43%
Will Breanna Stewart have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 15 $0 $0 -51%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Neymar win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -92%
Will Netherlands finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 15 $1 +$3 +311%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World C Jun 15 $0 $0 -96%
Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 15 $0 $0 +22%
Will Brett Howden lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 15 $8 +$9 +114%
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +71%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the third most seats Jun 15 $0 $0 -61%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +108%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 Jun 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -39%
Will Chennedy Carter have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 +74%
Will Kayla McBride have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 15 $0 $0 +118%
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +115%
Will Taylor Hall lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $1 $0 -84%
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -8%
Will Eric Robinson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $1 $0 -63%
Will Jesus Luzardo win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 15 $0 $0 -37%
Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Golden Knights win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-3 be the exact series o Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Ivan Barbashev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $0 $0 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e SELL Yes $0 1m
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $0 2m
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? BUY Yes $0 5m
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? BUY Yes $1 5m
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 8m
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30m
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30m
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 30m
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 30m
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 30m
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 32m
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32m
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $0 36m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $4 40m
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? SELL Yes $0 41m
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? BUY Yes $1 44m
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes $1 45m
Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat? SELL Yes $0 49m
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes $0 53m
Will Breanna Stewart have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 20 BUY Yes $0 53m
Will Jonquel Jones have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes $0 53m
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes $0 55m
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 55m
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 55m
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,026.53 · official $1,077.56 · 3500 history records