Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
51 0x5147…1c33 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$629 (-9%) realized −$738 · open +$109
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$999
7 days−$597
14 days−$597
30 days−$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$438
world 1% −$56
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 60% -15.7%
≤30d 15 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 60% -15.7%
≤90d 15 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 60% -15.7%
all 17 -20.5% -28.0% 59% 53% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 53% -16.5%
10% -34.9% 47% -24.5%
15% -41.2% 18% -31.8%
20% -47.0% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$312 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$738
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage131d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 82¢ $291 $400 +$109 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $501 −$493 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,170 −$1,100 -94%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $896 +$275 +31%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $696 +$202 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $499 +$197 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $499 +$523 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $458 −$455 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $364 +$93 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $336 +$28 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $280 +$56 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $226 +$55 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $164 +$62 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $124 +$40 +32%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 09 $28 −$28 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $295 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $501 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $31 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $30 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,170 19h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $31 20h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $896 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $696 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $696 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $499 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,022 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $499 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $458 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $457 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $364 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $364 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $336 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $280 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $280 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $226 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $164 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $164 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $124 4d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes $28 130d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $28 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.22 · official $400.22 (match) · 30 history records