Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5148…7f55 crypto 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-3%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate76%241W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$80
14 days−$74
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.6% -14.6% 76% 69% -11.6%
≤30d 102 -3.7% -12.8% 75% 70% -11.3%
≤90d 316 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 72% -11.7%
all 318 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 71% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 71% -11.8%
10% -23.0% 4% -20.2%
15% -30.5% 3% -27.9%
20% -37.3% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses241 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage93d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$26 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$51 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$27 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$10 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$18 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$25 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$11 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $14 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $13 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $12 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.00 (match) · 1071 history records