Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x514b…6931 other 54 markets active 16h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,657 (+17%) realized +$3,880 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$1,006
14 days+$2,844
30 days+$3,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.0% -33.0% 29% 21% -0.9%
≤30d 41 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 34% +5.1%
≤90d 47 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 34% +6.6%
all 47 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 34% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 34% +6.6%
10% -11.7% 26% -3.6%
15% -20.2% 23% -12.9%
20% -28.0% 19% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$47 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,668
Realized+$3,880
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage33d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 67¢ $183 $438 +$255 (+139%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 55¢ 33¢ $622 $375 −$246 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 84¢ 100¢ $252 $299 +$47 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 69¢ $259 $220 −$39 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 87¢ $147 $158 +$11 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $59 $46 −$12 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $59 $11 −$48 (-81%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+162%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3,506 +$297 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $71 −$67 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $156 +$184 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,612 −$25 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $121 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,414 −$45 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $140 −$123 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $218 −$214 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$108 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,100 +$1,059 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $822 +$112 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $65 +$31 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $502 +$33 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$38 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,553 +$396 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $66 −$46 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,181 +$297 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $425 +$622 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $343 +$456 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,267 +$243 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $91 +$166 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $95 +$122 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 −$41 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $240 −$125 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $153 −$104 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $193 +$30 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $315 −$69 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $41 +$459 +1116%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $82 −$65 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $156 +$119 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 17h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 17h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 18h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $157 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $224 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $7 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $18 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $14 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 34h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 38h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $42 41h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $152 41h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $152 41h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 41h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $102 41h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,668.46 · official $1,668.49 (match) · 298 history records