Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x514f…ee49 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$317 (+5%) realized +$304 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%71W / 44L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$122
sports 34% +$184
world 2% +$60
crypto 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 1 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤90d 15 +4.4% -5.5% 53% 53% -10.0%
all 115 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 58% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 58% -5.4%
10% -19.0% 53% -14.4%
15% -26.9% 43% -22.7%
20% -34.0% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$35 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses71 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)115 / 123
History coverage251d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 80¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+125%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $50 +$48 +97%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 +$41 +165%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $50 +$44 +89%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $50 +$19 +38%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $50 +$21 +43%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $50 +$27 +54%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $50 +$19 +39%
PAOK vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? Feb 20 $50 +$36 +72%
PAOK vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Feb 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Feb 19 $25 +$6 +25%
AC Milan vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Feb 19 $50 +$20 +41%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 +$29 +59%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 19 $50 +$33 +67%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $50 +$72 +144%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $50 +$41 +82%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $50 +$18 +35%
SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5 Feb 15 $50 +$19 +39%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 15 $50 +$19 +39%
Gil Vicente FC vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5 Feb 15 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $29 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $31 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 53d
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 53d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 53d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 53d
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 53d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $76 68d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 68d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 68d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 68d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 87d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 87d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 88d
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 89d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 89d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY No 71¢ $50 89d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 89d
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 89d
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 89d
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea BUY Australia 28¢ $10 101d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.86 · official $72.86 (match) · 250 history records