Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515b…b56b crypto 1615 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%1444W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -5.1% -14.1% 83% 41% -14.9%
≤30d 302 -4.1% -13.2% 84% 42% -13.1%
≤90d 528 -3.0% -12.3% 86% 38% -12.1%
all 1614 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 15% -10.2%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1444 / 170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1614 / 1615
History coverage121d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 90¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.68 (match) · 3500 history records