Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515e…6307 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$2
crypto 14% −$1
other 14% $0
sports 14% $0
world 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage171d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $213 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 18 $213 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $213 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $426 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $213 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $213 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $213 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $213 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $213 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 30 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 14h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $104 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 22d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 34d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $104 34d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 36d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 37d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 42d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 43d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 45d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $75 46d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 46d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 65d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 65d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 68d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 69d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 84d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 85d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $213 94d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $213 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $213 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $213 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 99¢ $213 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 99¢ $213 100d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 102d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 103d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $213 104d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $213 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records