Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515e…ec0d world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$449 (-2%) realized −$557 · open +$108
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$118
14 days+$120
30 days−$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$169
politics 17% −$272
tech 12% +$9
other 8% +$48
economics 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.8% -2.5% 80% 20% -0.3%
≤30d 22 +26.8% +14.7% 73% 27% -23.1%
≤90d 38 +15.9% +4.9% 79% 16% -12.8%
all 47 +13.0% +2.2% 79% 17% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 17% -12.0%
10% -7.6% 9% -20.5%
15% -16.5% 6% -28.1%
20% -24.7% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$135 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$4,975
Realized−$557
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)47 / 59
History coverage119d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $2,234 $2,247 +$13 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $932 $1,008 +$76 (+8%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $939 $950 +$11 (+1%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $242 $244 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $245 $224 −$21 (-9%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $132 $132 +$1 (+0%)
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $70 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 65¢ 95¢ $32 $48 +$15 (+46%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $229 +$13 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$4 -4%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $473 +$13 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $334 +$94 +28%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 8PM ET? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $201 −$104 -52%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $203 +$4 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $175 +$105 +60%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $405 +$38 +10%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,203 +$42 +4%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$30 +741%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $63 +$7 +11%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $93 +$7 +7%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $824 −$485 -59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $714 −$714 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $729 +$46 +6%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 22 $29 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 20 $173 −$17 -10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $206 +$5 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 13 $76 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $274 +$10 +4%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $85 +$4 +5%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $313 +$9 +3%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $235 +$12 +5%
US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? Apr 11 $70 +$2 +2%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $94 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $7,794 +$11 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 06 $69 −$10 -14%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Apr 01 $280 +$7 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 01 $421 +$23 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,859 +$142 +5%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 20 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 15 $1,228 +$88 +7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 15 $68 +$12 +18%
House passes Massie-Khanna war powers resolution by March 13? Mar 15 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $269 +$17 +6%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Mar 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Mar 03 $3 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Feb 23 $4 +$3 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $108 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $531 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 6h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $119 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $137 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $139 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $242 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 44h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $229 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $68 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $170 6d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $134 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $292 7d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 8PM ET? BUY No 86¢ $10 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $68 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,975.00 · official $4,969.44 (match) · 378 history records