Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x515e…4990
sports · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$83 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Miami Marlins 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Elvina Kalieva Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 24 $5 $0 +7%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $5 +$5 +109%
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 24 $15 +$3 +23%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 24 $21 +$4 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Shymkent: Oleksii Krutykh vs Andrej Nedic Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Tamara Korpatsch Apr 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 21 $58 +$19 +32%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 21 $15 +$3 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $2 −$1 -41%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Christopher O'Connell Apr 20 $3 +$1 +20%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski Apr 20 $3 +$1 +30%
Will CA Banfield vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? Apr 20 $15 +$13 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 20 $2 +$2 +93%
T20 Series Nepal vs UAE: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $2 +$1 +65%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $25 +$20 +81%
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Mar 23 $51 −$27 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$81
world 18% −$7
other 2% +$2
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 3d
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Miami Marlins 67¢ $10 49d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 77¢ $5 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 57¢ $1 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 52¢ $1 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 50¢ $1 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 51¢ $8 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 6¢ $1 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 9¢ $2 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 59¢ $13 50d
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 29¢ $5 50d
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Jiri Lehecka 100¢ $5 50d
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Jiri Lehecka 93¢ $5 50d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot SELL Emilio Nava 100¢ $10 50d
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Ben Shelton 62¢ $10 50d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Emilio Nava 47¢ $5 51d
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Arthur Rinderknech 100¢ $16 51d
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 95¢ $10 51d
Madrid Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 84¢ $5 51d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin SELL Qinwen Zheng 98¢ $18 51d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin BUY Qinwen Zheng 79¢ $5 51d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin BUY Qinwen Zheng 79¢ $10 51d
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 0¢ $5 51d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 81¢ $5 51d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 80¢ $5 51d
Avalanche vs. Kings SELL Avalanche 79¢ $6 51d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 78¢ $6 51d
Avalanche vs. Kings SELL Avalanche 77¢ $7 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 1 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤90d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 58% 45% -27.6%
all 33 -17.5% -25.4% 58% 45% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 45% -27.6%
10% -32.5% 33% -34.5%
15% -39.0% 18% -40.9%
20% -45.0% 15% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 104 history records