Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515f…7c70 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$2
economics 4% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -0.0% -9.6% 91% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage350d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 16 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 10 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $1,263 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 13? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 12? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 580 and 599 times September 5–12? Sep 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? Sep 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5? Sep 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22? Aug 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15? Aug 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8? Aug 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? Aug 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 15 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $11 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 01 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jul 01 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $23 36d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 73d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 80d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 86d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 86d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 86d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 86d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 105d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 BUY No 100¢ $11 119d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 BUY No 100¢ $12 119d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $11 148d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $12 148d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 156d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 156d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 100¢ $13 176d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 100¢ $10 176d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 193d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $11 193d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 100¢ $2 197d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 100¢ $10 197d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 100¢ $10 197d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY No 100¢ $22 215d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $1,263 216d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $13 222d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $13 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.59 · official $21.59 (match) · 127 history records