Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x515f…be31 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$996 (+28%) realized +$999 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$212
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$220
other 21% +$1,186
economics 4% +$74
crypto 1% −$30
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +80.6%
≤30d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +80.6%
≤90d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +80.6%
all 51 +13.2% +2.5% 41% 41% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 41% +18.9%
10% -7.3% 39% +7.5%
15% -16.3% 37% -2.9%
20% -24.5% 35% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$48 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$999
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions8
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage545d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $70 +$998 +1426%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Feb 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say “Sleepy Joe” by February 28? Feb 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $20 +$23 +113%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Colts vs. Texans Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $20 +$23 +117%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 05 $20 +$37 +186%
Dolphins vs. Patriots Jan 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Chargers vs. Broncos Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Giants vs. Raiders Jan 04 $40 +$27 +67%
Jaguars vs. Colts Dec 29 $80 +$57 +72%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 29 $30 −$16 -55%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $55 +$141 +257%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $85 +$90 +106%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Dec 21 $25 +$56 +223%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $126 +$74 +59%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 08 $163 −$163 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Saints vs. Buccaneers Dec 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Bengals vs. Bills Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bengals vs. Ravens Dec 07 $40 +$138 +345%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $73 −$24 -33%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Seahawks vs. Rams Nov 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Nov 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? Nov 07 $10 +$2 +19%
Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 22 $258 −$258 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 27 $116 −$116 -100%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 27 $108 +$92 +85%
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Jan 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jan 20 $162 +$38 +24%
Vikings vs. Lions Jan 11 $180 +$125 +70%
Lions vs. 49ers Jan 02 $195 +$105 +54%
Packers vs. Vikings Dec 30 $100 +$100 +100%
Titans vs. Colts Dec 23 $64 +$36 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 29m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 14d
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? BUY $3k 28¢ $30 133d
Will Trump say “Sleepy Joe” by February 28? BUY No 22¢ $15 133d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Patriots 47¢ $20 142d
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) BUY Patriots 49¢ $34 145d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $191 145d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 42¢ $20 149d
Texans vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 42¢ $25 155d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 65¢ $20 156d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 156d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Bears 46¢ $20 158d
Rams vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 18¢ $14 158d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 162d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 162d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 162d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 162d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 162d
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 162d
Dolphins vs. Patriots BUY Dolphins $6 163d
Lions vs. Bears BUY Lions 35¢ $20 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.46 · official $322.48 (match) · 270 history records