Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x5165…2de3 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$258 (+2%) realized +$261 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate90%27W / 3L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$681
7 days−$663
14 days−$341
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$941
other 25% −$791
sports 2% +$108
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 80% 60% -22.9%
≤30d 11 +9.3% -1.1% 91% 64% -9.1%
≤90d 26 +14.7% +3.7% 88% 38% -7.7%
all 30 +14.6% +3.7% 90% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 40% -7.7%
10% -6.2% 23% -16.5%
15% -15.3% 17% -24.6%
20% -23.6% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$777) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$357 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses27 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage103d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $536 $533 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $409 +$127 +31%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $302 +$108 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,359 −$1,059 -78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,218 +$143 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,200 +$18 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1,132 +$68 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $990 +$141 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $878 +$112 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $777 +$98 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $701 +$69 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $490 +$220 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $467 +$23 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $430 +$37 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $797 +$54 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $360 +$10 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $275 +$15 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? May 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $347 +$13 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 23 $341 +$7 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $288 +$12 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $8 +$12 +146%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $9 +$21 +243%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $6 +$2 +42%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $2 $0 +8%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $537 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $537 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $409 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $300 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,359 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,361 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,218 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $1,200 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1,132 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $1,131 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $990 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $990 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $878 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? BUY No 89¢ $777 25d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 91¢ $701 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $490 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $467 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL No 98¢ $467 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 90¢ $430 36d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $345 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $72 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $7 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $421 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $374 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $360 45d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $290 45d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $5 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.87 · official $538.75 · 71 history records