Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x516b…8f65 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$27 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$41
14 days+$82
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$15
other 5% $0
world 4% +$4
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 4 +5.5% -4.5% 75% 75% +0.7%
≤90d 12 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 58% -7.1%
all 18 -2.9% -12.1% 83% 39% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 39% -7.3%
10% -20.5% 33% -16.2%
15% -28.2% 17% -24.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$63 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage170d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $102 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $95 +$41 +44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $132 +$40 +31%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $87 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $104 +$50 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $94 +$39 +42%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $76 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 09 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 09 $14 +$4 +26%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 09 $64 +$12 +18%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $35 −$34 -99%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $71 −$69 -98%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 25 $25 +$1 +3%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 29? Jan 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.22 · official $99.22 (match) · 35 history records