Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x516b…b213 other 118 markets active 10h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$8
politics 21% −$7
economics 6% −$2
sports 4% −$21
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +1.9% -7.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 115 -2.5% -11.8% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage103d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $88 $89 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $477 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $468 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $378 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $477 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $254 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $485 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 10h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 13h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $11 11d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $89 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.02 · official $188.02 (match) · 356 history records