Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x516c…981e crypto 964 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,250 (+12%) realized +$13,244 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate58%554W / 404L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$767
politics 3% −$156
world 1% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 492 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 29% -8.2%
≤30d 829 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 23% -8.8%
≤90d 958 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 22% -8.9%
all 958 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 22% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 22% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 19% -17.6%
15% -32.2% 17% -25.6%
20% -38.8% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$13,244
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses554 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)958 / 964
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 958 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 29¢ 34¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$22 +214%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$11 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$18 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$53 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$5 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$13 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$7 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 33m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.31 · official $260.96 (match) · 3500 history records