Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x516e…6e0e
weather · 419 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$210 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$201 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$100
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses141 / 246
Open positions32
Markets (closed)387 / 419
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 387 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$157
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 90¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? No 84¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? No 89¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? No 87¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? No 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$203
crypto 2% −$6
finance 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 67¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 79¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -13.8% -22.0% 28% 19% -20.3%
≤30d 387 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 26% -16.8%
≤90d 387 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 26% -16.8%
all 387 -11.1% -19.6% 36% 26% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 26% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 11% -24.8%
15% -34.3% 10% -32.0%
20% -40.7% 10% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.65 · official $99.66 (match) · 1253 history records