Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5172…14d6 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
other 20% −$1
politics 15% +$2
sports 12% −$12
economics 6% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 +0.5% -9.0% 39% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 74 +5.2% -4.8% 35% 3% -9.4%
all 75 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -15.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -23.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -30.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage484d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+76%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $15 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $143 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $24 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $31 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $50 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $112 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $28 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 19¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.07 · official $53.75 (match) · 388 history records