Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x5174…8a39 weather 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$225 (+40%) realized +$204 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$91
14 days+$216
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$116
crypto 34% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +36.5% +23.5% 59% 59% +26.9%
≤30d 21 +26.2% +14.2% 57% 57% +38.1%
≤90d 21 +26.2% +14.2% 57% 57% +38.1%
all 21 +26.2% +14.2% 57% 57% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 57% +38.1%
10% +3.2% 57% +24.9%
15% -6.7% 57% +12.8%
20% -15.9% 57% +1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Yes 41¢ 58¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Yes 34¢ 43¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$11 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$15 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$16 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$44 +286%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 +$25 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 +$26 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$12 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 +$9 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$9 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $170 +$132 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 23? BUY Yes $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.80 · official $170.80 (match) · 49 history records