Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5175…1546 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$799 (-4%) realized −$768 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%66W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$3,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$159
14 days−$246
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$606
world 14% +$38
sports 10% +$15
crypto 9% −$213
tech 5% −$64
politics 3% +$12
culture 2% +$11
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -25.7% -32.7% 20% 0% -25.8%
≤30d 17 -5.8% -14.8% 41% 24% -15.6%
≤90d 45 -3.1% -12.3% 51% 33% -16.3%
all 123 +3.5% -6.4% 54% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 40% -13.6%
10% -15.3% 28% -21.9%
15% -23.5% 23% -29.4%
20% -31.0% 20% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$57 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$3,684
Realized−$768
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses66 / 57
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions17
Markets (closed)123 / 140
History coverage721d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $660 $619 −$41 (-6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $499 $521 +$22 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 60¢ $400 $447 +$47 (+12%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $400 $368 −$32 (-8%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $304 $327 +$23 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $203 $276 +$74 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 92¢ $200 $264 +$64 (+32%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 24¢ $400 $235 −$165 (-41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $199 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $171 −$29 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+105%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $40 $7 −$32 (-81%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF Jun 21 $100 −$21 -21%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $292 −$18 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $272 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 −$160 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $198 −$7 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $206 +$5 +2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $313 −$19 -6%
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 03 $207 +$28 +14%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $400 +$29 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 02 $138 −$37 -26%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 26 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 25 $178 +$22 +12%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 21 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $152 −$61 -40%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 09 $247 −$245 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 08 $345 +$45 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $546 −$23 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $414 −$30 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 04 $198 −$99 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 04 $818 +$65 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 28 $406 +$2 +0%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $308 +$4 +1%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $204 +$31 +15%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $120 +$210 +175%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 17 $322 −$47 -15%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Apr 11 $208 −$67 -32%
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 10 $25 +$22 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $100 +$73 +73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 06 $391 +$58 +15%
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31? Mar 31 $6 −$1 -27%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Mar 29 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Mar 29 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $46 +$16 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026? Mar 25 $2 +$2 +82%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 25 $240 +$5 +2%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $50 +$35 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $210 +$89 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $50 +$107 +212%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $191 −$53 -28%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio Mar 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 8¢ $79 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 15h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 15h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $295 16h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 17h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $274 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $274 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $120 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $105 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $200 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $97 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $142 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $75 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $161 8d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $191 8d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 11d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 11d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $84 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $47 11d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,683.51 · official $3,683.81 (match) · 633 history records