Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5179…9b36 other 15 markets active 13h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$145 (+33%) realized +$148 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$68
sports 12% +$48
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 44% +20.6%
≤30d 9 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 44% +20.6%
≤90d 9 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 44% +20.6%
all 9 +62.5% +47.0% 56% 44% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.0% 44% +20.6%
10% +32.9% 44% +9.0%
15% +20.1% 44% -1.5%
20% +8.3% 44% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $125 +$11 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$83 +326%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$29 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $104 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $34 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.17 · official $67.17 (match) · 32 history records