Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x517b…50b7
weather · 1055 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$188 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$183 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$836
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses670 / 307
Open positions78
Markets (closed)977 / 1055
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 78 History 977 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$13
14 days−$43
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? No 94¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 90¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 92¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 92¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 91¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? No 89¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$160
crypto 5% −$27
other 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 66¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 20¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 48¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +1.6% -8.0% 87% 9% -8.3%
≤30d 530 -4.8% -13.9% 58% 14% -12.4%
≤90d 977 -2.1% -11.5% 69% 16% -11.4%
all 977 -2.1% -11.5% 69% 16% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 16% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 8% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $836.19 · official $836.19 (match) · 3500 history records