Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x517b…be02 world 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,081 (+26%) realized +$6,229 · open −$148
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%48W / 90L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,111
7 days+$1,566
14 days+$2,856
30 days+$3,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3,119
other 19% +$56
finance 17% +$338
sports 12% +$1,293
crypto 11% +$1,030
politics 3% +$80
tech 1% −$297
culture 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +38.0% +24.9% 38% 38% +56.9%
≤30d 64 +10.6% +0.1% 38% 38% +21.7%
≤90d 138 +9.1% -1.3% 35% 34% +14.0%
all 138 +9.1% -1.3% 35% 34% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 34% +14.0%
10% -10.8% 34% +3.1%
15% -19.4% 30% -6.9%
20% -27.3% 27% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$78 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$6,229
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses48 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions10
Markets (closed)138 / 148
History coverage73d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $84 $59 −$25 (-30%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $54 $40 −$14 (-25%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Yes $45 $34 −$11 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes $62 $2 −$60 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $701 +$1,111 +158%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $58 −$50 -86%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 15 $100 −$87 -87%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $36 +$123 +344%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $68 +$139 +203%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $47 +$240 +509%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $157 +$174 +111%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$118 +118%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $50 −$4 -9%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $48 +$156 +325%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $149 +$216 +146%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 11 $153 −$148 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $46 −$44 -97%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 10 $42 −$24 -58%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 10 $124 −$95 -76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $58 +$170 +291%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $59 +$122 +206%
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $164 +$283 +172%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,476 +$1,102 +75%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $148 −$145 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $142 +$206 +145%
Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO? May 30 $24 −$23 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $74 −$73 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $841 +$1,218 +145%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? May 27 $50 −$5 -10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 26 $52 −$27 -52%
Will ADK win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives ele May 24 $15 −$15 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $568 +$142 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $284 +$104 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $915 −$900 -98%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $48 −$47 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $195 −$143 -73%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $89 +$71 +79%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $52 +$46 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $15 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $50 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $10 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,662 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $29 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $201 26h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $50 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $19 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $350 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $218 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes $13 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 28¢ $41 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $43 2d
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $159 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $207 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $287 3d
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $36 3d
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $61 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $45 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 34¢ $171 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $46 3d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.75 · official $342.78 (match) · 379 history records