Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x517c…e3fc crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,016 (+35%) realized +$1,170 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 45L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$73
14 days+$23
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$257
other 40% +$1,281
finance 3% +$10
politics 2% −$51
sports 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 33% 33% +20.1%
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% +30.5%
≤90d 60 -17.2% -25.1% 27% 25% +34.9%
all 62 -17.5% -25.3% 27% 26% +34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 26% +34.3%
10% -32.5% 24% +21.5%
15% -39.0% 23% +9.7%
20% -45.0% 21% -1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$32 · ×4.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$1,170
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage93d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $120 $109 −$11 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $102 −$7 -7%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $154 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$67 -60%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $102 +$198 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $105 +$1,328 +1269%
Will Sweden be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 25 $90 −$85 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$70 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 18 $40 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 18 $30 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 14 $30 +$24 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 14 $60 −$28 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 13 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 13 $200 −$191 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 12 $20 +$33 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$116 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 11 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 11 $50 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$56 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$133 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 11 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 11 $110 +$132 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 11 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$127 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 11 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 11h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 21d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 21d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 21d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 37d
Will Sweden be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 37d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 37d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 37d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 37d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 37d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 37d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 37d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 37d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 37d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $60 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.42 · official $131.45 (match) · 203 history records