Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x517d…a577 politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$671 (+0%) realized +$671 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$3,226per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$393
14 days+$393
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$23
economics 19% +$49
politics 19% +$139
sports 18% +$11
world 14% +$502
finance 7% −$16
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -8.6%
≤30d 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 12 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 8% -8.9%
all 45 +2.2% -7.6% 40% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 18% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 9% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 7% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$5,979) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$7 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$671
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage621d
Avg bet$3,226
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6,301 −$8 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6,301 −$8 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $6,302 −$11 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,101 −$7 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 20 $6,000 −$7 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $5,800 +$437 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $6,007 −$9 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 26 $6,001 −$9 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 17 $6,018 +$12 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $6,012 +$6 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $5,954 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $11,778 −$12 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $5,953 +$24 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Mar 18 $1 +$3 +270%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Mar 18 $4 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Mar 18 $5,908 +$36 +1%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $5,960 −$6 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $5,500 −$6 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $5,993 −$12 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $1 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $5,918 +$36 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 13 $3 −$3 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 13 $5,957 −$6 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $5,962 +$36 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $5,968 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $5,979 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Feb 05 $39 +$5 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $1,797 +$4 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $860 −$10 -1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 01 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 01 $59 +$20 +33%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 01 $125 +$26 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $200 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Mar 08 $301 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Jan 02 $152 +$82 +54%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $835 +$116 +14%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House Oct 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 17 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6,293 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6,301 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6,293 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6,301 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6,286 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6,302 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6,291 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6,302 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6,093 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6,101 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6,384 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6,401 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5,800 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $5,997 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6,007 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5,992 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6,001 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5,988 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6,000 31d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $6,018 61d
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,012 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,953 100d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,908 132d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $5,819 132d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $5,854 132d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5,943 132d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5,954 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.90 · official $47.90 (match) · 253 history records