Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x517e…977a world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$18
other 5% −$3
politics 1% −$2
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 42% 6% -8.8%
all 41 -10.2% -18.8% 39% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 7% -9.1%
10% -26.6% 7% -17.8%
15% -33.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -40.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage526d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $213 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $97 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 +$1 +24%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $105 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $211 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $38 +$10 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $45 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $2 $0 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $216 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $216 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Gold" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Mercer vs. Furman Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Malmo FF beat Twente? Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $51 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $51 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $51 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records