Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5182…c36c crypto 1755 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1737W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -2.2% -11.5% 97% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 404 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 1757 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.9%
all 1757 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1737 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1757 / 1755
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $7.98 (match) · 3500 history records