Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x5184…0c64 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$71 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$511
14 days+$740
30 days+$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$405
crypto 17% +$133
sports 9% +$90
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +135.7% +113.3% 60% 60% +162.0%
≤30d 30 +70.8% +54.5% 53% 53% +100.4%
≤90d 40 +41.5% +28.0% 45% 45% +87.4%
all 40 +41.5% +28.0% 45% 45% +87.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.0% 45% +87.4%
10% +15.8% 45% +69.4%
15% +4.6% 45% +53.1%
20% -5.7% 45% +38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +107% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +108% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$10 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 56
History coverage62d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $111 $81 −$30 (-27%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co Jun 24 $31 +$95 +310%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$74 +122%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$200 +391%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $51 +$155 +302%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$23 +454%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$15 +96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$49 +101%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$40 +113%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $10 +$50 +484%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 +$118 +507%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 25 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 25 $4 +$7 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $25 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 14¢ $62 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $26 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $26 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 22¢ $51 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 23¢ $51 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 10¢ $26 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 32¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 24¢ $15 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Co BUY 24¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 32¢ $66 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $26 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $26 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 12¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 29¢ $15 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 12¢ $41 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 12¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 24¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.26 · official $97.26 (match) · 111 history records