Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5184…d17a sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-1%) realized −$184 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%129W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$61
14 days−$35
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$210
crypto 5% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.5% -19.9% 59% 44% -7.9%
≤30d 245 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 39% -11.6%
≤90d 246 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 39% -11.7%
all 246 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 39% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -11.7%
10% -25.6% 27% -20.2%
15% -32.8% 17% -27.9%
20% -39.4% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses129 / 117
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage31d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $117 +$5 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$23 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $102 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $101 +$31 +30%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $61 +$32 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 +$2 +151%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $403 −$378 -94%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $506 −$16 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $423 +$111 +26%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$12 +58%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $302 +$97 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $301 +$25 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $81 −$5 -7%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $201 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $408 +$178 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $265 +$24 +9%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $132 −$13 -10%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $20 −$8 -41%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $302 +$35 +12%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $8 −$2 -21%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $301 +$24 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $301 +$1 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $69 −$19 -28%
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $35 +$10 +28%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 09 $252 +$29 +12%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 09 $30 +$7 +22%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 08 $10 −$6 -60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $221 +$36 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $254 −$12 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $201 +$31 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $839 −$264 -31%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $493 +$38 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$7 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 75¢ $28 48m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 56¢ $95 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $101 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $122 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $99 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $109 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $102 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 12h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $131 12h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 76¢ $101 13h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $93 34h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 62¢ $61 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors $3 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G $25 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $61 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $403 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 SELL Under 62¢ $489 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 63¢ $506 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $58 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $403 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 43¢ $19 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 44¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 684 history records