Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5185…da23 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$140 (+6%) realized +$141 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$413
sports 34% −$277
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 33% -4.3%
≤30d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 33% -4.3%
≤90d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 33% -4.3%
all 84 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 33% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 33% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -13.5%
15% -27.0% 31% -21.8%
20% -34.1% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$22 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 56
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $34 −$33 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $62 +$288 +468%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$10 -47%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $62 +$42 +68%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$19 -61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +128%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $22 +$272 +1260%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -34%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 46¢ $61 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 23¢ $104 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 23h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 36h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.47 · official $139.47 (match) · 164 history records