Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5187…aa17 crypto 1002 markets active 10h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,947 (-8%) realized −$2,947 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%511W / 491L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$132
14 days−$744
30 days−$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,481
politics 7% −$529
world 6% −$596
sports 0% −$32
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 406 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤30d 587 -9.6% -18.3% 42% 42% -19.6%
≤90d 1002 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 47% -18.3%
all 1002 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 47% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 47% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 37% -26.1%
15% -28.5% 31% -33.3%
20% -35.5% 27% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,947
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses511 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1002 / 1002
History coverage70d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1002 Trades
no open positions (223 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$15 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$10 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$14 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$11 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2650 history records