Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5189…b3a7 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$16
other 35% −$19
politics 4% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 31% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 13% -7.8%
all 30 -3.5% -12.7% 37% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage307d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $43 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $151 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $75 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $149 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $99 +$15 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $70 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $22 −$14 -61%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $7 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $56 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $45 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 43h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $58 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $75 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.62 · official $55.62 (match) · 131 history records