Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
51 0x518a…71b3 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+23%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$91
sports 33% +$109
other 9% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +18.2% +7.0% 70% 60% +13.9%
≤30d 10 +18.2% +7.0% 70% 60% +13.9%
≤90d 10 +18.2% +7.0% 70% 60% +13.9%
all 10 +18.2% +7.0% 70% 60% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.0% 60% +13.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 60% +3.0%
15% -12.6% 40% -6.9%
20% -21.2% 40% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$48 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$124 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $119 −$94 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$47 +67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $96 +$62 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $70 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $96 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $133 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17 BUY 40¢ $38 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $70 11h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $37.19 · 25 history records