Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x518c…9c11 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%60W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 47% -8.9%
≤30d 53 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 107 -12.2% -20.5% 56% 47% -12.6%
all 107 -12.2% -20.5% 56% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 47% -12.6%
10% -28.1% 40% -21.0%
15% -35.1% 35% -28.6%
20% -41.4% 23% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses60 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage32d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $76 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $76 −$28 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$38 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $77 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records